Perevertin K.A., Leunov V.I., Belolyubtsev A.I., Simakov E.A., Ivantsova N.N., Vasil’ev T.A.
Trends of climate-related changes – warming, aridization of land, degradation of the cryolithozone, etc. can be taken into account in the strategic planning of adaptive landscape systems of agriculture (climate is one of the most important characteristics of agricultural landscapes). However, the greatest danger is posed by weather risks associated with increased climate nervousness. In this paper, we consider a method for accounting for weather risks, where (seemingly paradoxical) the actual forecast is declared secondary (and even optional in conditions of complete uncertainty according to forecasts!). The described method of risk compensation can be classified as tactical. Within the framework of mathematical game theory, A (agronomist) and P (nature/weather) are considered as conditional players. Adhering to the calculated optimal strategy A minimize crop losses in any «whims» of the P. Sowing 25% of the technology for the wet year (X1) and 75% - technology for dry years (X2), the agronomist has guaranteed the price of the game 0,85 (conditionally net income), while any only one strategy guaranteed to get only 0.7 (for X1) or 0.8 (for X2). The optimal agronomic solution will be to use technology for drought in one third of the area, and technology for a wet year with precipitation in an unfavorable period in two thirds. The obtained solutions do not have the character of universal regional recommendations, but they allow us to successfully optimize agronomic solutions on a farm scale. For small farms, this method will be less popular. However, large farms (agricultural holdings) are extremely interested in obtaining a guaranteed level of income, and it is quite possible to organize the simultaneous use of two technologies on their sufficiently developed base.
Key words: climate, risk, game theory, yield
Perevertin K.A. (author for correspondence), D. Sci (Biol.), Parasitology Centre, A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution, Soil Institute named after V.V. Dokuchaev. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Leunov V.I., D. Sci (Agr.), professor, department of vegetable growing, RSAU–MTAA after K.A. Timiryazev. E-mail: email@example.com
Belolubtsev A.I., D. Sci (Agr.), professor, acting dean of faculty of agronomy and biotechnology, RSAU–MTAA after K.A. Timiryazev. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
Simakov E.A., D. Sci (Agr.), professor, head of the experimental gene pool department, Lorch Potato Research Institute
Ivantsova N.N., Cand. Sci. (Techn.), associate professor, department of higher mathematics, RSAU–MTAA after K.A. Timiryazev. E-mail: email@example.com
Vasil'ev T.A., research fellow, Interdisciplinary Laboratory for Mathematical Modeling of Soil Systems, Soil Science Institute named after V.V. Dokuchaev. E-mail: firstname.lastname@example.org
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For citing: Accounting for current and expected weather risks in crop production based on mathematical game theory. K.A. Perevertin, V.I. Leunov, A.I. Belolyubtsev, E.A. Simakov, N.N. Ivantsova, T.A. Vasil’ev. Potato and vegetables. 2020. No6. Pp. 6-10. https://doi.org/10.25630/PAV.2020.13.27.001 (In Russ.).